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全年计划量，保留接口计划口径。","componentIds":["country-execution","analysis-months"],"formula":"cancel / plan"},{"label":"执行量同比","definition":"2025执行量与2024全年执行量比较；base2019 是 baseline 的原值展示别名。","componentIds":["country-growth","country-scale","analysis-months"],"formula":"act / lastYear - 1"}],"caveats":["计数为航班班次，不是旅客量、座位数、ASK 或 RPK。","历史月份按 board.title 还原真实区间；key 的月中日期只是接口索引。","取消按接口计划口径，不等同于临近起飞 6 小时取消；不据此推导官方正常率。","日期字段表示月度或年度起始标签；各年汇总覆盖完整自然年，2025 汇总实际区间为 2025-01-01 至 2025-12-31。"],"evidenceFlow":[{"title":"country-JP","detail":"query_flow_data {\"mode\": \"line_full\", \"orgctry\": \"CH\", \"dstctry\": \"JP\", \"countryType\": 0, \"trip\": \"round\", \"sdate\": \"2019-01-01\", \"edate\": \"2025-12-31\", \"step\": \"month\", \"tranmode\": \"passenger\"}"},{"title":"country-KR","detail":"query_flow_data {\"mode\": \"line_full\", \"orgctry\": \"CH\", \"dstctry\": \"KR\", \"countryType\": 0, \"trip\": \"round\", \"sdate\": \"2019-01-01\", \"edate\": \"2025-12-31\", \"step\": \"month\", \"tranmode\": \"passenger\"}"},{"title":"country-TH","detail":"query_flow_data {\"mode\": \"line_full\", \"orgctry\": \"CH\", \"dstctry\": \"TH\", \"countryType\": 0, \"trip\": \"round\", \"sdate\": \"2019-01-01\", \"edate\": \"2025-12-31\", \"step\": \"month\", \"tranmode\": \"passenger\"}"},{"title":"country-SG","detail":"query_flow_data {\"mode\": \"line_full\", \"orgctry\": \"CH\", \"dstctry\": \"SG\", \"countryType\": 0, \"trip\": \"round\", \"sdate\": \"2019-01-01\", \"edate\": \"2025-12-31\", \"step\": \"month\", \"tranmode\": \"passenger\"}"},{"title":"country-US","detail":"query_flow_data {\"mode\": \"line_full\", \"orgctry\": \"CH\", \"dstctry\": \"US\", \"countryType\": 0, \"trip\": \"round\", \"sdate\": \"2019-01-01\", \"edate\": \"2025-12-31\", \"step\": \"month\", \"tranmode\": \"passenger\"}"},{"title":"country-GB","detail":"query_flow_data {\"mode\": \"line_full\", \"orgctry\": \"CH\", \"dstctry\": \"GB\", \"countryType\": 0, \"trip\": \"round\", \"sdate\": \"2019-01-01\", \"edate\": \"2025-12-31\", \"step\": \"month\", \"tranmode\": \"passenger\"}"},{"title":"数据处理","detail":"每个国家对获取 2019-01-01 至 2025-12-31 月数据，保留 84 个完整自然月；读 plan/act/cancel/delay；按年求和；2025 与 2019、2024 同范围比较；六市场合计用于样本份额。每个国家对及月份均校验 plan=act+cancel。"}],"files":["country-JP.json","country-KR.json","country-TH.json","country-SG.json","country-US.json","country-GB.json"]},"methods":[{"language":"text","code":"每个国家对获取 2019-01-01 至 2025-12-31 月数据，保留 84 个完整自然月；读 plan/act/cancel/delay；按年求和；2025 与 2019、2024 同范围比较；六市场合计用于样本份额。每个国家对及月份均校验 plan=act+cancel。"}]}},"analysis":{"number":"01","eyebrow":"INTERNATIONAL MARKETS","title":"中国与六国航班市场","subtitle":"供给分析报告","period":"2019—2025 · 完整自然年","scope":"中国与日、韩、泰、新、美、英六个双向客运市场","accent":"blue","headline":"2025 年合计恢复至 2019 年的 89.0%，市场之间仍有差异。","findings":["六个市场全年执行 **66.41 万班**，同比 +9.0%；2 个市场达到或超过 2019 年规模。","**新加坡相对基准最高**，为 2019 年的 103.6%；美国为 60.3%。相同的增长率，并不意味着相同的市场规模。","**日本贡献最大的绝对增量**：较 2019 年增加 0.87 万班。用增量与份额一起观察，能看清结构变化。"],"metrics":[{"label":"2025 年样本执行量","value":"66.41","unit":"万班"},{"label":"相对 2019 年水平","value":"89.0","unit":"%"},{"label":"较 2024 年增长","value":"+9.0","unit":"%"},{"label":"达到 2019 年的市场","value":"2","unit":"/ 6"}],"names":["日本","韩国","泰国","新加坡","美国","英国"],"codes":{"JP":"日本","KR":"韩国","TH":"泰国","SG":"新加坡","US":"美国","GB":"英国"},"total":664106,"base":746077,"notes":{"annual":"指数统一以各市场 2019 年为 100。新加坡与美国的差异，在同一基准下更容易识别。","scale":"比较绝对班次，避免把较小市场的高增速误读为最大的供给增量。","change":"增量为 2025 年减 2019 年；正负增量共同构成六市场整体变化。","heat":"100 表示恢复到 2019 年同月规模。用同月作基准，减少固定季节差异的干扰。"},"implication":"**综合结论：国际供给呈现市场分化与增长来源集中并存的特征。** 日本、新加坡已略超 2019 年规模，英韩接近基准，美泰缺口仍较大。日本贡献了大部分同比净增量，但年末同月恢复指数回落，说明全年增长不能替代最新月份判断。\n\n**研究建议：** 按“绝对执行量—相对历史水平—最近月份变化—取消占计划比例”持续跟踪六市场，优先核查泰国收缩和日本年末变化。这些发现支持供给侧跟踪，不构成客流需求或收益预测。","methods":"中国口径使用 CH，包含香港、澳门、台湾；目的地为六个外国市场。双向客运航班按年与月分析，份额仅代表本报告所选六市场。","coverPeriod":"2019—2025 年","coverScope":"双向客运航班供给 · 历史基准 · 市场结构","coverDescription":"追踪中国与日本、韩国、泰国、新加坡、美国、英国六个市场的航班供给，分析执行规模、恢复水平与市场结构变化。","narrative":{"recovery":{"title":"恢复水平分化：两个市场超过基准，美国仍有较大缺口","queries":["summary"],"body":"**主要结论：六市场供给尚未整体回到 2019 年水平，恢复进度存在明显差异。** 2025 年样本执行 66.41 万班，较 2019 年少 8.20 万班，相当于基准年的 89.0%。新加坡和日本分别达到 103.6% 与 103.4%；英国为 95.5%、韩国为 93.1%，泰国和美国分别为 69.0% 与 60.3%。\n\n这意味着“是否恢复”需要分市场判断。新加坡和日本已略高于各自历史规模，英韩接近基准，而美泰仍存在较大班次缺口。样本总量反映的是这些不同变化的合成结果，不能据此认定所有国际市场处于同一恢复阶段。\n\n**分析含义：** 比较市场时应同时查看绝对规模和基准恢复水平。美国恢复指数较低，可以说明历史班次缺口较大；是否存在新增供给机会，还需要客流、票价和航权等证据。"},"structure":{"title":"日本成为样本增长的主要来源，泰美构成历史缺口的主体","queries":["summary"],"body":"**主要结论：2025 年的样本增量较集中。** 六市场比 2024 年净增 5.50 万班，其中日本增加 4.74 万班，占净增量的 86.2%；泰国减少 1.51 万班，抵消了部分其他市场的增长。该贡献率采用“单市场增量÷样本净增量”，属于增长贡献，并非市场份额。\n\n从 2019 年基准看，泰国与美国分别少 5.67 万班和 2.39 万班，合计占四个低于基准市场班次缺口的 86.7%。日本的样本份额由 34.1% 提升至 39.7%，泰国由 24.5% 降至 19.0%，显示六市场内部的班次分布已经改变。\n\n**分析含义：** 样本总量继续增长与增长来源分散是两个不同问题。当前应重点观察日本增量能否延续，以及泰国减少的班次是否持续；仅凭这一组数据不能推断中国全部国际航班市场的集中度。"},"months":{"title":"全年恢复并不等于每个月都恢复，年末走势需要单独观察","queries":["heatmap"],"body":"**主要结论：年度合计会掩盖月度差异。** 日本 2025 年全年已超过 2019 年，但 11 月、12 月相对 2019 同月仅为 91.4% 和 80.7%。新加坡 12 月则为 110.4%；美国全年各月均低于 2019 同月，月度指数在 56.6%—67.7% 之间。\n\n同月比较减少了固定季节差异的影响，但并未进行完整季节调整。日本年末指数回落说明其“全年恢复”不能直接外推为年末各月的供给状态；美国的低指数分布于全年，班次缺口也并非只集中在一个月份。\n\n**分析含义：** 制定后续市场观察清单时，应把年度水平与最近月份分开阅读。月度图可定位需要进一步核查的时间段，现有数据不能解释这些变化由需求、政策还是航司调整引起。"},"execution":{"title":"供给增长和计划兑现并不总是同步","queries":["summary"],"body":"**主要结论：需要把市场规模与取消占比放在两条轴上评价。** 美国 2025 年执行量同比增长 14.6%，取消占计划比例为 3.8%，为六市场最低；但其执行量仍只有 2019 年的 60.3%。泰国执行量同比下降 10.7%，取消占计划比例为 14.7%，为样本最高。\n\n美国案例表明，较低取消占比不代表供给已恢复；泰国则同时表现为同比收缩和较高计划取消占比。两项指标共同描述供给表现，但不足以识别取消发生时点或造成变化的具体原因。\n\n**后续分析重点：** 对泰国进一步核查月度计划调整和航线分布，对美国持续跟踪执行规模恢复。没有旅客量、机型座位数和收益数据，不据此给出盈利能力判断。"}},"overviewConclusion":"2025 年六市场执行 66.41 万班，为 2019 年的 89.0%。日本贡献 86.2% 的同比净增量，泰国和美国仍是历史班次缺口的主要来源。","reviewedRowsSha256":"64a8bdf7e64370dd22c5f57cb2d9039a0f4c60c8149c077636c5c434b3acd417","view":{"baselineYear":2019,"previousYear":2024,"reportYear":2025,"periodLabel":"1—8 月","baseMonthLabel":"1月","lastMonthLabel":"8月","dailyStart":"2026-07-01","dailyEnd":"2026-08-31","dailyLabel":"7—8 月","baselinePeriodLabel":"6月","cityLabels":{"北京":"BEIJING","上海":"SHANGHAI","成都":"CHENGDU"}}},"reportType":"international","id":"report:19d2ee00-08a9-52c0-b7cf-fa5bab04ffb0","reuseContract":{"version":"1.0","reportType":"international","dataElementId":"data-app-reviewed-snapshot","replacePolicy":"Replace complete snapshot only; keep compiled UI, CSS and runtime bytes unchanged. 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